Saturday, October 20, 2012

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

What Would You Do With $500,000,000

If you were Graybar?

Yes, it's a lot of money and many people are wondering, perhaps speculating, on what Graybar will do with a half a billion dollar unsecured loan. This gives them $300 million more than they had before.  It's an intriguing question and ranges from "nothing" to "retiring prior loans / lines of credit that had higher interest rates" to "how can they spend the money?"

(And since Allen and I had some time to spend on the phone today, we thought we'd try to spend someone else's money!)

From asking around, we've learned:
  • There is no personal liability.
  • There are no real estate attachments
  • There are no stock attachments nor A/R commitments.
  • Part of these loans were renewal of old loans and cleaned up documents from as long ago as 5 years ago.
But, according to some "in the know", there are plans for the money.

But remember, the plan could be keeping the money "dry" and not using it ... essentially saving it for a rainy day.

But, why post something if we can't share ideas on how it could be used....
  • $500,000,000 would buy about $2 billion in distributor sales, so could Graybar go on a buying spree? These could be electrical distributors, automation houses (they bought AVAD), lighting distributors, etc.
  • Perhaps an expanded renewables initiative .... solar, entering the smart grid marketplace?
  • Do they need a cash cushion for business they want to pursue, especially if they are concerned about receivables / delayed payment?
  • Could some be invested into their industrial automation strategy? They are hiring many people around the country now (don't know if any are funded by Schneider Electric).
  • Or in more salespeople (Grainger is expected to hire 300 new inside salespeople this year).  After all, Graybar's Bill Mansfield was quoted as saying manufacturers are reducing their salesforces
  • Perhaps enter a new business through an acquisition ... buy a solar distributor? a PT distributor? an ESCO to support their energy initiative?
  • Or expanding their utility business by purchasing HD Supply's utility group (which now includes their electrical group)?
  • Or funding the opening of new locations (they are looking to open 7-10 new locations per year for the next several years)
  • Maybe take a page from Grainger and do end-user marketing to build their brand and drive business?
  • From a financial viewpoint, is the loan viewed as liquidity / cash and an asset for a potential acquirer of Graybar, enabling some internal funding of Graybar being acquired? Could someone like Motion Industries (Genuine Parts) be interested in entering the electrical industry? Or another large distribution company? Or a private equity firm?
Lot's of choices.  With cash much can be done.  It's doubtful that Graybar invested its time to do nothing with the money.  So what do you think they should do? If you had this much money (to spend in the business), how would you spend it?  What could be a "game changer" to accelerate their business?

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Technology @ a Crossroads? Motherships and etc.

Back in July, we seemed to have hit a nerve with some distributors and manufacturers about some former Mothership ERP's that are now drifting out of orbit.

As we read emails and listened to phone calls, it became apparent that some distributors had followed a similar path when purchasing their latest ERP system.
  • They did a quick survey to make sure they covered their Cardex system functions.
  • They talked to their industry buddies to make sure the new system would work (if it is good enough for them it is good enough for us review process!)
  • Some listened to tales of poor or waning support; Many did not pay attention.
  • Site visits became the norm and many realized that they would never achieve the level efficiency of what they saw. But they wanted it.
  • Not happy with their current system's support, many jumped to a system that everyone told them worked. But soon discovered that the support was as bad or worse than what they had left behind in their old system.
  • The installation of new systems disrupted their business to the point that they cut short training and data conversion.
  • Very few looked at ERP systems that ran on open databases, that would carry them into new technologies. To think that through was beyond their immediate goals. They just wanted a system that ran, regardless that it was 25+ year old technology and not very pretty on the screen.
"ERP systems that worked" But does it later on?
In the rush to install the "new" ERP system most overlooked two crucial items:
  1. Complete training and turning on the complete system (like wireless warehouse/bar coding and EDI) These are not all the systems that didn't get turned on.
  2. Correcting and cleaning their product data (this is like putting sugar, sand and sawdust into your car's gas tank.) Many just moved the dirty data forward and hoped for the best.
As time went, by distributors began to see the need to control variable costs and they looked at a number of other add-on modules. Many looked at various wireless warehouse solutions, only to find that their product data was so poor that they couldn't implement the process. The extent of the problem is best described in a recent article " Data Drives the Wireless Warehouse" by Beth Badrakan. If you wanted to bar code your data you had to meet certain standards. Many retreated from the project because of cost.

A side note about the data issue and closed ERP systems is that generally it forces you to go back to the original ERP provider, that now may be drifting off into space and no longer the Mothership that everyone thought it was. Even then, some were not successful because of the cost to add-on wireless warehouse.

So some distributors turned their attention to managing margin and cleaning up their data as it was updated by using epaCube. This let the distributor work at their own pace as data flowed in. The payback was over a longer period of time. Still others looked at ways to get at product usage data reports, which many assumed came with the ERP system. Not many mastered the use of the report writer and none had access to the source code. The key to getting access to the data lay in being able to convert the database files using a product like Kore Technologies offers. This allows the distributor to convert files to software products that they most are familiar with.

Game Changer Technology
Just around the corner is technology that will allow "Tablet computers" that are not Apple ,to deliver HD functionality and connectivity using free WiFi or a data plan:
  • Log on to a distributor's site or system/send a RFQ or order
  • Click on a distributor/manufacturer catalog (PDF), populate an order and send it you the distributor.
  • Receive delivery notices
  • See signature capture.
  • See training videos in HD....etc
  • All of this could be done with a distributor's salesperson being in attendance.
Manufacturers, ERP providers and distributors will probably want tablet delivery systems. Distributors for quote/order capability. ERP's will be forced to offer connectivity. Manufacturers will want to deliver training and product videos in the field.
What's a distributor to do with their partially functioning ERP system as they look out across their competitive landscape with changing technology that becomes a game changer?
  • How do you hook up to tablet-like technology? Good data is required (and it is a separate discussion of how a distributor can get there ... what is the definition of "good" and who has the scale to deliver it?) What Mothership ERP package will offer that connectivity and open the way for future productivity?
  • Is it time to get serious about driving variable cost out of your business? That means letting computers do the work....good data drives three way matching, collecting SPA Rebates, bar coding, accurate price matrix etc
  • Good data, along with an accurate pricing matrix, can drive more profit to the bottom line.
  • Or, do you start seeking a buyer for your business?
  • Or do you seek to open up your ERP system's data in preparation to starting a new ERP search?
What do you think? Share your thoughts with us.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Recent Acquisition Thoughts

The last couple of weeks we've seen a couple of transactions that could be interesting:
  • First is yesterday's announcement that Hajoca, the sister company of CED, acquired HD Supply's plumbing and HVAC group.  It wasn't much of a surprise that HD divested of the plumbing group.  Their "contractor" groups have underperformed since HD was created as an amalgamation of acquisitions. And bringing in someone from Ferguson to run it was a signal. It begs the question of "when will HD Supply sell its electrical group?"  They did sell their Canadian electrical group to Sonepar.In thinking of potential acquirers that make sense ... there could be some synergies for Sonepar (as well as some new territory expansion); CED given that Hajoca knows the right people and CED is always an acquirer at the right price; Rexel ????.  It doesn't make sense for HD Supply to sell the parts piecemeal (too many legal expenses).  We wouldn't be surprised to see something happen this year as the outlook for resi / commercial construction remains dismal.

  • Secondly, Cree purchasing Ruud Lighting, which also sells to distributors under the BetaLED name.  Interesting that Cree is expanding into the fixture business.  Gives them 2 sets of reps selling LEDs, at least for now, and a business that is known for selling direct to contractors (Ruud). Will this put any more pressure on the major lighting companies to expand their LED offerings? Does Cree think it can accelerate LED sales? Is the fixture business more profitable than being an OEM supplier? Or did Cree think that competition for the LEDs is increasing and it needed its own fixture manufacturer to ensure its business?  With other electronics companies entering the LED space, are there more OEMs out there?  Click here for an interesting interview with Cree and Ruud but the question of "how will this impact the distribution side of your business" wasn't asked.  As a distributor, would you prefer to purchase from a BetaLED, owned by Cree, or purchase from one of the leading fixture manufacturers (Cooper, Lithonia, Philips Lumieres (Thomas Lighting, Lightolier, etc), Juno) or is the name of the game "value-engineering"?

And according to sources, we should expect more distributor and manufacturer acquisitions by the end of the year as there is a drive for market share and diversification at the right price.  As the market is changing, are you having "what if" sessions within your company?  What do you think of these acquisitions?

Monday, August 8, 2011

Free Agency and Electrical Distributors

The recent signing of the NFL collective bargaining agreement signaled the start of the football season.  And pre-season has been a frenzy with a record number of available free agents, a few signing for megabucks, most simply looking for a new home (and a paycheck).  And just like there were no signings (free agents or draft choices) for over 4 months, so has the electrical industry gone without many acquisitions for awhile.

But it looks like a feeding frenzy is starting.

Over the past few months there have been a number of acquisitions throughout the country ... and with some common attributes.  The commonalities:
  • Contractor-oriented distributors being purchased

  • Companies with limited / no succession plans

Couple this with a tepid, if not disheartening, outlook for the construction markets; the fact that some, if not all, of these companies had no, or minimal, profitability in the past few years; and that the acquisitions represented some strategic synergy for the acquirer and you can see why companies could be enticed to sell.  They saw an opportunity to, like a football player, "take the money and run."

The deals we're referencing include CED purchasing Yale Electric (PA), 3E purchasing City Electric (IA), Sonepar's recent purchase of Independent Electric (CA) and there has been a small deal in west Texas.  We're also hearing rumors of a few other deals in the pipeline.

Which brings us to the question of "how long can some contractor-oriented distributorships hold out in the face of nominal industry performance, uncertain healthcare expenses, taxation concerns and general business uncertainty, especially as we see the industry dynamics favoring companies with a penchant to invest in energy efficiency, solar, datacom, safety, institutional sales and more.  The distributor of tomorrow appears to be either a well-diversified company or a niche player.
,
Companies that have been heavily concentrated in the contractor-oriented construction segment, in many markets throughout the country, are challenged to deliver a return to their owners. And if there isn't an avowed succession plan, perhaps now is the time to consider positioning the company for a sale (like the above companies did).

Optimizing your selling price requires planning to improve your top and bottom line while showing an acquirer that there is more value in your business than meets the eye.  Consider:
  • Have you gotten your back office as efficient as possible?

    • Have you turned on all your EDI capability?

    • Are you able to identify all of your non-stock sales? Are you making adequate margin on them?

    • Are you claiming all your SPA’s in a timely fashion (inside of 24 days) and therefore giving your manufacturers an interest free loan?

    • Are you using a wireless warehouse?

    • How fresh is your inventory? Has it gone stale? Have you got product that hasn’t sold in the last year? There are ways to get rid of that inventory.

    • How are your margins? Are they the lowest they have been in several years? Do you know the 3 keys to increasing margins relatively painlessly?

    • How is your ERP system working for your company? Is it causing you to lose sales?

    • How good are you at collecting outstanding invoices with your customers?

  • How are your customer and revenue generation issues?

    • Do you know where the opportunities are in your marketplace?

    • Do you have any brand equity?

    • Do you really know your customers current needs?

    • Do you know how your customers perceive you vs. your competition?

    • Do you know your marketshare and do you have a plan to increase it?

    • What is your sales plan? Your marketing plan? Your product mix?

    • Where is the growth opportunity for an acquirer? Can you sell them on a vision? On your plan? Are your manufacturers vested into your strategy?

While selling a business is about the numbers, if you're not in negotiations know you still have the ability to impact your numbers? (we know it can be done ... we've done it)

So, do you see more acquisitions happening in the near future? Why (or why not)? And do you think a company can "pretty itself up" to "sign the big deal"? And what does this mean for acquirers ... will acquirers be solely Sonepar, CED and larger independents (does Rexel have the capability? will WESCO go electrical or not? Gexpro and Graybar haven't been acquirers; will Crescent finally make a deal?) 

Much to ponder.  Should be an exciting season!